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Definitive Analysis

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Zanyu Technology Group Co., Ltd. (002637.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$35.80 - $72.07$67.54
Multi-Stage$11.41 - $12.47$11.93
Blended Fair Value$39.74
Current Price$10.43
Upside280.99%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.00%12.15%0.330.350.460.310.260.260.370.280.090.08
YoY Growth---6.23%-24.29%47.00%21.18%0.94%-30.67%30.71%219.20%14.53%-25.59%
Dividend Yield--3.46%4.05%3.88%1.56%1.66%1.93%4.20%3.13%0.65%0.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)165.44
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)133.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)32.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)33.0920.6812.41
Cash Retained (M)32.0132.0132.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-33.09-20.68-12.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1.0811.3319.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)456.52456.52456.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.290.290.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.290.320.34
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$35.80$67.54$72.07
Upside / Downside243.21%547.56%590.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)165.44176.19187.65199.84212.83226.67233.47
Payout Ratio80.65%82.52%84.39%86.26%88.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)133.43145.40158.36172.39187.57204.00215.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)135.43136.71137.99
Year 2 PV (M)137.38140.00142.64
Year 3 PV (M)139.30143.30147.37
Year 4 PV (M)141.17146.60152.19
Year 5 PV (M)143.01149.92157.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,513.224,731.214,957.54
Equity Value (M)5,209.505,447.735,694.82
Shares Outstanding (M)456.52456.52456.52
Fair Value$11.41$11.93$12.47
Upside / Downside9.41%14.41%19.60%

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