Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Goldenmax International Technology Ltd. (002636.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.10 - $3.72$2.79
Multi-Stage$2.01 - $2.19$2.10
Blended Fair Value$2.44
Current Price$12.25
Upside-80.07%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS64.66%10.03%0.060.080.080.060.010.000.000.060.000.00
YoY Growth---29.36%0.00%41.67%609.28%70.55%0.00%-100.00%66,649.90%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--0.69%1.18%0.88%0.56%0.08%0.06%0.00%0.49%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)110.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)46.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)64.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.1113.828.29
Cash Retained (M)64.5164.5164.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.11-13.82-8.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)42.4050.6956.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)729.15729.15729.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.130.14
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate4.00%5.00%6.00%
Fair Value$2.10$2.79$3.72
Upside / Downside-82.83%-77.25%-69.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)110.55116.07121.87127.96134.36141.07145.30
Payout Ratio41.65%51.32%60.99%70.66%80.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)46.0459.5674.3390.42107.93126.96134.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate4.00%5.00%6.00%
Year 1 PV (M)53.6354.1554.67
Year 2 PV (M)60.2761.4362.61
Year 3 PV (M)66.0267.9469.90
Year 4 PV (M)70.9673.7376.58
Year 5 PV (M)75.1778.8582.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,137.401,193.151,251.06
Equity Value (M)1,463.441,529.241,597.48
Shares Outstanding (M)729.15729.15729.15
Fair Value$2.01$2.10$2.19
Upside / Downside-83.62%-82.88%-82.12%

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