Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Zhejiang Century Huatong Group Co.,Ltd (002602.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.29 - $22.61$14.79
Multi-Stage$7.30 - $7.98$7.63
Blended Fair Value$11.21
Current Price$20.71
Upside-45.86%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.57%60.74%0.040.040.040.070.070.060.050.010.020.01
YoY Growth---3.32%-2.47%-33.84%-10.22%20.47%30.68%221.80%-13.97%84.15%2,460.73%
Dividend Yield--0.64%0.88%0.73%1.06%1.04%0.60%0.46%0.14%0.15%0.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,767.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)193.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,574.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)753.49470.93282.56
Cash Retained (M)3,574.053,574.053,574.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-753.49-470.93-282.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,820.563,103.123,291.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,161.917,161.917,161.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.390.430.46
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.390.430.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.420.460.49
WACC / Discount Rate9.81%9.81%9.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$10.29$14.79$22.61
Upside / Downside-50.31%-28.57%9.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,767.454,012.334,273.134,550.894,846.705,161.735,316.58
Payout Ratio5.13%22.11%39.08%56.05%73.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)193.40887.001,669.942,550.933,539.384,645.564,917.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.81%9.81%9.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)800.14807.73815.31
Year 2 PV (M)1,358.921,384.801,410.93
Year 3 PV (M)1,872.551,926.311,981.08
Year 4 PV (M)2,343.742,433.872,526.58
Year 5 PV (M)2,775.012,909.043,048.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)43,112.4345,194.7847,356.82
Equity Value (M)52,262.7954,656.5257,138.92
Shares Outstanding (M)7,161.917,161.917,161.91
Fair Value$7.30$7.63$7.98
Upside / Downside-64.76%-63.15%-61.48%

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