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Definitive Analysis

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Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.,Ltd. (002597.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$21.15 - $53.05$31.78
Multi-Stage$26.94 - $29.50$28.20
Blended Fair Value$29.99
Current Price$20.84
Upside43.89%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.66%4.58%0.270.900.730.510.560.380.630.480.230.21
YoY Growth---70.08%22.10%44.03%-8.90%47.75%-40.30%33.46%104.54%8.58%24.91%
Dividend Yield--1.06%4.67%2.44%1.29%1.42%1.87%3.43%1.92%1.17%1.64%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)538.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)476.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)61.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)107.7267.3240.39
Cash Retained (M)61.6261.6261.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-107.72-67.32-40.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)-46.10-5.7021.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)554.01554.01554.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.08-0.010.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.860.860.86
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.08-0.010.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.780.850.90
WACC / Discount Rate6.36%6.36%6.36%
Growth Rate2.58%3.58%4.58%
Fair Value$21.15$31.78$53.05
Upside / Downside1.47%52.48%154.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)538.58557.88577.88598.59620.04642.26661.53
Payout Ratio88.56%88.85%89.14%89.42%89.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)476.96495.66515.09535.28556.25578.04611.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.36%6.36%6.36%
Growth Rate2.58%3.58%4.58%
Year 1 PV (M)461.54466.04470.54
Year 2 PV (M)446.61455.36464.19
Year 3 PV (M)432.16444.92457.93
Year 4 PV (M)418.17434.72451.75
Year 5 PV (M)404.63424.74445.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,760.4713,394.6614,053.83
Equity Value (M)14,923.5815,620.4416,343.89
Shares Outstanding (M)554.01554.01554.01
Fair Value$26.94$28.20$29.50
Upside / Downside29.26%35.29%41.56%

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