Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Yawei Machine Tool Co., Ltd. (002559.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.83 - $26.90$25.21
Multi-Stage$15.01 - $16.49$15.74
Blended Fair Value$20.47
Current Price$11.25
Upside81.97%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.25%5.95%0.140.150.150.150.050.200.120.120.100.08
YoY Growth---4.17%-0.03%0.00%207.02%-75.38%66.83%-0.23%18.89%24.43%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.42%1.39%1.85%2.22%0.85%3.42%2.02%2.12%1.12%0.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)75.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)60.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)14.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.049.405.64
Cash Retained (M)14.8114.8114.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.04-9.40-5.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)-0.235.419.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)548.11548.11548.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.120.13
WACC / Discount Rate1.99%1.99%1.99%
Growth Rate3.95%4.95%5.95%
Fair Value$22.83$25.21$26.90
Upside / Downside102.89%124.05%139.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)75.2278.9482.8686.9691.2795.7998.66
Payout Ratio80.31%82.25%84.19%86.12%88.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)60.4164.9369.7574.8980.3786.2191.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.99%1.99%1.99%
Growth Rate3.95%4.95%5.95%
Year 1 PV (M)63.0663.6764.27
Year 2 PV (M)65.7967.0668.35
Year 3 PV (M)68.6170.6172.64
Year 4 PV (M)71.5074.3077.17
Year 5 PV (M)74.4978.1481.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,885.418,272.058,673.72
Equity Value (M)8,228.878,625.839,038.09
Shares Outstanding (M)548.11548.11548.11
Fair Value$15.01$15.74$16.49
Upside / Downside33.45%39.89%46.57%

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