Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Changzhou Qianhong Biopharma CO.,LTD (002550.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.79 - $8.59$6.38
Multi-Stage$8.03 - $8.83$8.42
Blended Fair Value$7.40
Current Price$9.02
Upside-17.92%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.29%6.52%0.120.130.130.120.250.140.100.100.090.08
YoY Growth---4.58%2.34%2.41%-51.69%84.34%37.40%4.63%6.78%6.52%29.16%
Dividend Yield--2.10%2.57%2.10%2.08%6.40%2.90%1.92%1.57%1.34%1.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)429.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)151.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)278.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)85.9353.7132.23
Cash Retained (M)278.51278.51278.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-85.93-53.71-32.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)192.58224.80246.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,240.001,240.001,240.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.180.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.180.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.280.300.32
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate0.70%1.70%2.70%
Fair Value$4.79$6.38$8.59
Upside / Downside-46.92%-29.23%-4.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)429.67436.99444.42451.99459.68467.50481.53
Payout Ratio35.18%46.14%57.11%68.07%79.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)151.16201.64253.80307.68363.31420.75445.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate0.70%1.70%2.70%
Year 1 PV (M)187.42189.28191.14
Year 2 PV (M)219.25223.63228.05
Year 3 PV (M)247.04254.48262.06
Year 4 PV (M)271.14282.07293.33
Year 5 PV (M)291.85306.63322.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,746.029,188.999,649.72
Equity Value (M)9,962.7310,445.0710,946.30
Shares Outstanding (M)1,240.001,240.001,240.00
Fair Value$8.03$8.42$8.83
Upside / Downside-10.93%-6.61%-2.13%

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