Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Zhejiang Zhongcheng Packing Material Co., Ltd. (002522.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.86 - $4.61$2.78
Multi-Stage$1.89 - $2.07$1.98
Blended Fair Value$2.38
Current Price$4.72
Upside-49.63%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.22%-0.71%0.070.070.070.120.120.080.100.120.050.06
YoY Growth---0.91%-1.58%-41.40%1.02%47.04%-11.99%-22.58%155.41%-18.16%-22.95%
Dividend Yield--1.52%1.69%1.32%2.17%2.00%1.46%1.60%1.17%0.25%0.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)77.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)44.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)33.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.459.665.80
Cash Retained (M)33.0733.0733.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.45-9.66-5.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)17.6223.4127.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)905.78905.78905.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.070.070.08
WACC / Discount Rate7.25%7.25%7.25%
Growth Rate3.45%4.45%5.45%
Fair Value$1.86$2.78$4.61
Upside / Downside-60.69%-41.10%-2.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)77.2780.7184.3088.0591.9796.0698.94
Payout Ratio57.20%63.76%70.32%76.88%83.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)44.2051.4659.2867.6976.7486.4591.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.25%7.25%7.25%
Growth Rate3.45%4.45%5.45%
Year 1 PV (M)47.5247.9848.44
Year 2 PV (M)50.5551.5352.52
Year 3 PV (M)53.3054.8656.46
Year 4 PV (M)55.8057.9960.24
Year 5 PV (M)58.0560.9163.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,444.631,515.811,589.78
Equity Value (M)1,709.851,789.091,871.32
Shares Outstanding (M)905.78905.78905.78
Fair Value$1.89$1.98$2.07
Upside / Downside-60.01%-58.15%-56.23%

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