Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Kuangda Technology Group Co., Ltd. (002516.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.20 - $22.64$21.21
Multi-Stage$13.32 - $14.69$13.99
Blended Fair Value$17.60
Current Price$6.24
Upside182.04%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-17.04%6.77%0.100.190.050.050.240.240.300.070.090.07
YoY Growth---50.00%300.00%-3.56%-79.61%-0.10%-18.07%299.29%-17.03%22.87%46.88%
Dividend Yield--1.86%3.98%0.94%1.10%7.60%8.38%8.56%1.35%1.33%1.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)180.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)117.67
(=) Cash Retained (M)62.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)36.1222.5813.55
Cash Retained (M)62.9562.9562.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-36.12-22.58-13.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)26.8340.3749.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,503.521,503.521,503.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.11
WACC / Discount Rate-2.35%-2.35%-2.35%
Growth Rate-0.13%0.87%1.87%
Fair Value$19.20$21.21$22.64
Upside / Downside207.62%239.83%262.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)180.62182.18183.77185.36186.97188.59194.25
Payout Ratio65.15%70.12%75.09%80.06%85.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)117.67127.74137.99148.40158.98169.73179.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-2.35%-2.35%-2.35%
Growth Rate-0.13%0.87%1.87%
Year 1 PV (M)129.52130.82132.12
Year 2 PV (M)141.86144.71147.60
Year 3 PV (M)154.68159.38164.17
Year 4 PV (M)168.02174.85181.89
Year 5 PV (M)181.89191.18200.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,254.7320,238.2321,261.53
Equity Value (M)20,030.7021,039.1822,088.14
Shares Outstanding (M)1,503.521,503.521,503.52
Fair Value$13.32$13.99$14.69
Upside / Downside113.50%124.25%135.43%

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