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Definitive Analysis

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Shanxi Securities Co., Ltd. (002500.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.25 - $3.42$2.80
Multi-Stage$4.87 - $5.35$5.10
Blended Fair Value$3.95
Current Price$6.47
Upside-38.96%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-5.84%6.96%0.140.260.300.280.210.190.150.105.150.09
YoY Growth---46.70%-11.38%6.65%33.45%10.12%30.56%46.82%-98.08%5,606.93%26.03%
Dividend Yield--2.37%5.16%5.11%4.92%2.97%2.84%1.55%1.34%49.06%0.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)910.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)659.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)251.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)182.16113.8568.31
Cash Retained (M)251.11251.11251.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-182.16-113.85-68.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)68.94137.25182.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,583.613,583.613,583.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.040.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.040.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.220.24
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.25$2.80$3.42
Upside / Downside-65.29%-56.78%-47.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)910.82901.71892.69883.77874.93866.18892.16
Payout Ratio72.43%75.94%79.46%82.97%86.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)659.71684.80709.32733.28756.69779.56825.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)634.29640.76647.23
Year 2 PV (M)608.53621.02633.63
Year 3 PV (M)582.69600.71619.09
Year 4 PV (M)556.94580.02603.81
Year 5 PV (M)531.45559.12587.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,524.9215,281.2716,068.80
Equity Value (M)17,438.8118,282.8919,160.50
Shares Outstanding (M)3,583.613,583.613,583.61
Fair Value$4.87$5.10$5.35
Upside / Downside-24.79%-21.15%-17.36%

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