Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Yotrio Group Co., Ltd. (002489.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.15 - $1.54$1.35
Multi-Stage$7.66 - $8.56$8.10
Blended Fair Value$4.73
Current Price$3.68
Upside28.44%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-23.91%-16.27%0.020.040.050.160.130.080.040.100.040.22
YoY Growth---49.91%-14.06%-71.26%22.17%68.73%103.23%-62.57%129.31%-79.23%83.38%
Dividend Yield--0.55%1.48%1.33%4.49%3.74%2.25%0.96%2.38%0.57%2.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)653.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)93.44
(=) Cash Retained (M)559.77
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)130.6481.6548.99
Cash Retained (M)559.77559.77559.77
(-) Cash Required (M)-130.64-81.65-48.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)429.13478.12510.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,173.182,173.182,173.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.220.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.220.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.240.260.28
WACC / Discount Rate4.55%4.55%4.55%
Growth Rate-13.48%-12.48%-11.48%
Fair Value$1.15$1.35$1.54
Upside / Downside-68.64%-63.26%-58.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)653.21571.70500.36437.92383.27335.45345.51
Payout Ratio14.30%29.44%44.58%59.72%74.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)93.44168.33223.07261.53286.92301.90319.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.55%4.55%4.55%
Growth Rate-13.48%-12.48%-11.48%
Year 1 PV (M)159.17161.01162.84
Year 2 PV (M)199.45204.09208.78
Year 3 PV (M)221.11228.87236.80
Year 4 PV (M)229.37240.16251.33
Year 5 PV (M)228.21241.71255.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,606.0416,528.9917,495.09
Equity Value (M)16,643.3417,604.8118,610.68
Shares Outstanding (M)2,173.182,173.182,173.18
Fair Value$7.66$8.10$8.56
Upside / Downside108.11%120.13%132.71%

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