Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Nantong Jianghai Capacitor Co. Ltd. (002484.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$139.08 - $163.86$153.56
Multi-Stage$95.61 - $104.92$100.18
Blended Fair Value$126.87
Current Price$30.22
Upside319.82%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS27.15%21.63%0.270.160.130.130.080.080.080.080.040.05
YoY Growth--68.80%25.56%1.62%51.94%1.54%2.09%0.29%95.20%-8.65%16.81%
Dividend Yield--1.33%1.04%0.59%0.59%0.57%1.05%1.01%1.04%0.37%0.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)695.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)226.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)468.99
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)139.0386.8952.14
Cash Retained (M)468.99468.99468.99
(-) Cash Required (M)-139.03-86.89-52.14
(=) Excess Retained (M)329.96382.10416.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)843.67843.67843.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.390.450.49
LTM Dividend per Share0.270.270.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.390.450.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.660.720.76
WACC / Discount Rate2.09%2.09%2.09%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$139.08$153.56$163.86
Upside / Downside360.23%408.15%442.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)695.14740.32788.44839.69894.27952.40980.97
Payout Ratio32.53%44.03%55.52%67.01%78.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)226.15325.93437.74562.70702.06857.16907.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.09%2.09%2.09%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)316.27319.26322.26
Year 2 PV (M)412.16420.01427.93
Year 3 PV (M)514.10528.86543.90
Year 4 PV (M)622.40646.33670.95
Year 5 PV (M)737.36772.97809.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)78,057.3081,827.5085,741.99
Equity Value (M)80,659.5884,514.9388,516.98
Shares Outstanding (M)843.67843.67843.67
Fair Value$95.61$100.18$104.92
Upside / Downside216.37%231.49%247.18%

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