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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Rainbow Heavy Industries Co., Ltd. (002483.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$41.74 - $102.24$95.82
Multi-Stage$15.15 - $16.57$15.85
Blended Fair Value$55.83
Current Price$7.11
Upside685.29%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.41%10.52%0.140.100.130.110.050.050.050.060.010.04
YoY Growth--38.76%-20.60%20.63%101.96%-1.70%0.27%-15.98%404.08%-69.91%-19.38%
Dividend Yield--2.07%2.18%2.42%1.43%1.13%1.13%1.15%1.33%0.14%0.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)454.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)287.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)166.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)90.8556.7834.07
Cash Retained (M)166.25166.25166.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-90.85-56.78-34.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)75.40109.47132.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)883.53883.53883.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.120.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.120.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.410.450.48
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$41.74$95.82$102.24
Upside / Downside487.05%1,247.66%1,338.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)454.23483.76515.20548.69584.36622.34641.01
Payout Ratio63.40%68.72%74.04%79.36%84.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)287.99332.44381.46435.44494.83560.11592.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)309.11312.04314.97
Year 2 PV (M)329.79336.07342.41
Year 3 PV (M)350.03360.08370.32
Year 4 PV (M)369.85384.08398.71
Year 5 PV (M)389.25408.05427.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,641.6512,203.9512,787.77
Equity Value (M)13,389.6814,004.2614,641.74
Shares Outstanding (M)883.53883.53883.53
Fair Value$15.15$15.85$16.57
Upside / Downside113.15%122.93%133.08%

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