Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Runtu Co., Ltd. (002440.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.47 - $2.07$1.77
Multi-Stage$4.26 - $4.70$4.47
Blended Fair Value$3.12
Current Price$7.06
Upside-55.79%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-20.85%-4.12%0.160.260.360.350.360.510.310.240.270.36
YoY Growth---39.52%-27.60%1.84%-1.57%-29.23%66.23%29.32%-10.66%-26.28%49.34%
Dividend Yield--2.34%4.22%4.67%4.11%3.67%5.30%1.96%1.67%2.38%2.75%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)287.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)174.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)112.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)57.5235.9521.57
Cash Retained (M)112.98112.98112.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-57.52-35.95-21.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)55.4677.0391.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,163.881,163.881,163.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.220.23
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate-6.12%-5.12%-4.12%
Fair Value$1.47$1.77$2.07
Upside / Downside-79.14%-74.96%-70.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)287.60272.88258.91245.66233.09221.16227.80
Payout Ratio60.72%66.57%72.43%78.29%84.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)174.62181.66187.53192.32196.13199.05210.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate-6.12%-5.12%-4.12%
Year 1 PV (M)168.80170.60172.40
Year 2 PV (M)161.91165.38168.89
Year 3 PV (M)154.29159.28164.37
Year 4 PV (M)146.21152.54159.07
Year 5 PV (M)137.88145.38153.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,187.094,414.884,652.49
Equity Value (M)4,956.185,208.065,470.41
Shares Outstanding (M)1,163.881,163.881,163.88
Fair Value$4.26$4.47$4.70
Upside / Downside-39.68%-36.62%-33.43%

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