Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Wanliyang Co., Ltd. (002434.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$40.93 - $48.22$45.19
Multi-Stage$34.52 - $37.88$36.17
Blended Fair Value$40.68
Current Price$9.92
Upside310.05%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.23%20.63%0.350.040.070.490.140.240.220.150.140.10
YoY Growth--756.66%-43.19%-85.43%249.90%-40.15%8.19%47.35%8.40%33.86%90.00%
Dividend Yield--4.42%0.63%0.76%6.49%1.87%2.91%2.73%1.74%0.79%0.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)323.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)176.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)147.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)64.7440.4624.28
Cash Retained (M)147.66147.66147.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-64.74-40.46-24.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)82.92107.19123.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,335.061,335.061,335.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.210.22
WACC / Discount Rate-1.97%-1.97%-1.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$40.93$45.19$48.22
Upside / Downside312.57%355.53%386.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)323.70344.74367.15391.01416.43443.50456.80
Payout Ratio54.38%61.51%68.63%75.75%82.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)176.04212.04251.98296.21345.12399.15422.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-1.97%-1.97%-1.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)214.27216.30218.34
Year 2 PV (M)257.31262.21267.16
Year 3 PV (M)305.66314.44323.38
Year 4 PV (M)359.89373.73387.96
Year 5 PV (M)420.61440.92462.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)44,525.7446,676.3548,909.27
Equity Value (M)46,083.4848,283.9550,568.11
Shares Outstanding (M)1,335.061,335.061,335.06
Fair Value$34.52$36.17$37.88
Upside / Downside247.96%264.58%281.82%

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