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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Yoke Technology Co., Ltd. (002409.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$63.81 - $346.61$115.79
Multi-Stage$37.98 - $41.53$39.73
Blended Fair Value$77.76
Current Price$73.75
Upside5.44%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS54.11%32.81%0.860.420.270.210.140.100.010.030.060.05
YoY Growth--105.99%55.34%25.97%50.42%43.37%839.19%-58.54%-56.56%25.38%-7.40%
Dividend Yield--1.40%0.75%0.52%0.42%0.26%0.32%0.06%0.10%0.26%0.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)918.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)226.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)692.64
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)183.79114.8768.92
Cash Retained (M)692.64692.64692.64
(-) Cash Required (M)-183.79-114.87-68.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)508.85577.77623.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)475.92475.92475.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.071.211.31
LTM Dividend per Share0.480.480.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.071.211.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.541.691.79
WACC / Discount Rate8.05%8.05%8.05%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$63.81$115.79$346.61
Upside / Downside-13.48%57.01%369.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)918.94978.671,042.291,110.041,182.191,259.031,296.80
Payout Ratio24.63%37.70%50.78%63.85%76.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)226.30368.97529.23708.77909.401,133.131,199.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.05%8.05%8.05%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)338.26341.47344.68
Year 2 PV (M)444.81453.28461.83
Year 3 PV (M)546.12561.80577.77
Year 4 PV (M)642.40667.10692.52
Year 5 PV (M)733.82769.27806.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,370.8316,113.2516,884.08
Equity Value (M)18,076.2518,906.1719,766.94
Shares Outstanding (M)475.92475.92475.92
Fair Value$37.98$39.73$41.53
Upside / Downside-48.50%-46.13%-43.68%

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