Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen H&T Intelligent Control Co., Ltd. (002402.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Technology DistributorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.15 - $70.84$32.07
Multi-Stage$12.03 - $13.16$12.59
Blended Fair Value$22.33
Current Price$49.83
Upside-55.19%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS27.66%19.82%0.200.170.120.120.070.060.030.000.050.02
YoY Growth--19.31%42.78%-0.92%65.08%21.69%105.02%3,086.94%-98.35%196.92%-43.73%
Dividend Yield--1.01%1.39%0.69%0.67%0.35%0.49%0.29%0.01%0.51%0.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)611.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)113.23
(=) Cash Retained (M)498.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)122.3776.4845.89
Cash Retained (M)498.60498.60498.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-122.37-76.48-45.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)376.24422.12452.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)919.12919.12919.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.410.460.49
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.410.460.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.530.580.62
WACC / Discount Rate8.43%8.43%8.43%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$19.15$32.07$70.84
Upside / Downside-61.58%-35.64%42.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)611.83651.60693.95739.06787.10838.26863.41
Payout Ratio18.51%32.80%47.10%61.40%75.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)113.23213.76326.88453.80595.84754.43798.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.43%8.43%8.43%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)195.28197.13198.98
Year 2 PV (M)272.81278.00283.25
Year 3 PV (M)346.00355.93366.05
Year 4 PV (M)415.03430.99447.40
Year 5 PV (M)480.06503.25527.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,351.629,803.3010,272.28
Equity Value (M)11,060.7911,568.6012,095.28
Shares Outstanding (M)919.12919.12919.12
Fair Value$12.03$12.59$13.16
Upside / Downside-75.85%-74.74%-73.59%

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