Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Tianjin Lisheng Pharmaceutical Co.,Ltd. (002393.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.83 - $27.66$21.65
Multi-Stage$32.47 - $35.73$34.07
Blended Fair Value$27.86
Current Price$23.32
Upside19.46%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.20%0.82%0.470.210.210.070.210.210.220.230.300.23
YoY Growth--121.11%0.00%200.00%-66.86%0.59%-4.45%-1.71%-24.51%32.34%-47.70%
Dividend Yield--2.81%1.19%1.30%0.42%1.66%1.23%1.08%1.09%1.08%0.84%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)386.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)101.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)284.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)77.2048.2528.95
Cash Retained (M)284.94284.94284.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-77.20-48.25-28.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)207.74236.69255.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)257.77257.77257.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.810.920.99
LTM Dividend per Share0.390.390.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.810.920.99
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.201.311.39
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate-0.55%0.45%1.45%
Fair Value$16.83$21.65$27.66
Upside / Downside-27.85%-7.18%18.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)386.02387.76389.51391.27393.04394.82406.66
Payout Ratio26.18%38.95%51.71%64.47%77.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)101.07151.02201.42252.27303.57355.34376.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate-0.55%0.45%1.45%
Year 1 PV (M)140.35141.76143.17
Year 2 PV (M)173.96177.47181.02
Year 3 PV (M)202.48208.65214.94
Year 4 PV (M)226.44235.69245.21
Year 5 PV (M)246.32258.96272.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,381.397,760.048,154.06
Equity Value (M)8,370.948,782.569,210.51
Shares Outstanding (M)257.77257.77257.77
Fair Value$32.47$34.07$35.73
Upside / Downside39.25%46.10%53.22%

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