Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Beijing Lier High-temperature Materials Co.,Ltd. (002392.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.37 - $14.82$9.34
Multi-Stage$4.43 - $4.84$4.63
Blended Fair Value$6.98
Current Price$9.99
Upside-30.10%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.22%9.17%0.080.030.000.000.040.030.050.050.030.04
YoY Growth--130.25%7,624.16%-86.47%-91.43%21.78%-38.90%-0.92%104.49%-31.40%12.71%
Dividend Yield--1.64%0.97%0.01%0.08%0.81%0.92%1.22%1.20%0.47%0.68%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)356.64
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)16.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)339.84
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)71.3344.5826.75
Cash Retained (M)339.84339.84339.84
(-) Cash Required (M)-71.33-44.58-26.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)268.51295.26313.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,166.661,166.661,166.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.230.250.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.230.250.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.240.270.28
WACC / Discount Rate9.55%9.55%9.55%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$6.37$9.34$14.82
Upside / Downside-36.26%-6.56%48.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)356.64379.82404.51430.80458.80488.62503.28
Payout Ratio4.71%21.77%38.83%55.88%72.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)16.8082.68157.06240.75334.66439.76465.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.55%9.55%9.55%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)74.7675.4776.18
Year 2 PV (M)128.42130.86133.33
Year 3 PV (M)178.00183.11188.32
Year 4 PV (M)223.74232.34241.19
Year 5 PV (M)265.85278.69292.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,295.654,503.134,718.55
Equity Value (M)5,166.425,403.615,649.59
Shares Outstanding (M)1,166.661,166.661,166.66
Fair Value$4.43$4.63$4.84
Upside / Downside-55.67%-53.64%-51.53%

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