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Definitive Analysis

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Canny Elevator Co., Ltd. (002367.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.48 - $17.20$11.84
Multi-Stage$12.32 - $13.52$12.91
Blended Fair Value$12.38
Current Price$6.62
Upside86.95%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.84%9.34%0.350.250.300.300.540.530.750.100.200.23
YoY Growth--41.74%-16.62%0.18%-45.36%2.75%-29.80%650.00%-50.00%-13.60%61.53%
Dividend Yield--4.80%3.43%3.62%4.13%5.36%6.45%8.93%1.05%1.51%1.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)396.47
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)239.51
(=) Cash Retained (M)156.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)79.2949.5629.73
Cash Retained (M)156.95156.95156.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-79.29-49.56-29.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)77.66107.40127.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)797.65797.65797.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.130.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.130.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.400.430.46
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate1.77%2.77%3.77%
Fair Value$8.48$11.84$17.20
Upside / Downside28.05%78.91%159.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)396.47407.43418.70430.28442.18454.41468.04
Payout Ratio60.41%66.33%72.25%78.16%84.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)239.51270.25302.50336.33371.80408.97432.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate1.77%2.77%3.77%
Year 1 PV (M)251.19253.66256.13
Year 2 PV (M)261.34266.50271.71
Year 3 PV (M)270.08278.12286.32
Year 4 PV (M)277.51288.58299.98
Year 5 PV (M)283.73297.95312.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,486.268,911.499,353.59
Equity Value (M)9,830.1110,296.3010,780.46
Shares Outstanding (M)797.65797.65797.65
Fair Value$12.32$12.91$13.52
Upside / Downside86.16%94.99%104.16%

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