Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Tianjin Saixiang Technology Co.,Ltd (002337.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.33 - $2.82$1.89
Multi-Stage$1.00 - $1.09$1.04
Blended Fair Value$1.47
Current Price$5.91
Upside-75.19%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS43.61%-8.82%0.030.030.000.000.020.010.010.000.000.00
YoY Growth--23.64%4,163.60%436.26%-99.41%265.19%-55.26%781.67%-69.68%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--0.59%0.52%0.01%0.00%0.66%0.16%0.20%0.03%0.06%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)43.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)30.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.665.413.25
Cash Retained (M)30.5430.5430.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.66-5.41-3.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)21.8825.1327.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)608.16608.16608.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.040.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.040.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.060.060.07
WACC / Discount Rate9.91%9.91%9.91%
Growth Rate5.40%6.40%7.40%
Fair Value$1.33$1.89$2.82
Upside / Downside-77.48%-68.05%-52.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)43.3046.0749.0252.1655.5059.0660.83
Payout Ratio29.47%41.58%53.68%65.79%77.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12.7619.1626.3234.3243.2353.1556.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.91%9.91%9.91%
Growth Rate5.40%6.40%7.40%
Year 1 PV (M)17.2717.4317.59
Year 2 PV (M)21.3821.7822.20
Year 3 PV (M)25.1225.8426.58
Year 4 PV (M)28.5229.6230.75
Year 5 PV (M)31.6033.1334.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)483.90507.29531.59
Equity Value (M)607.79635.11663.42
Shares Outstanding (M)608.16608.16608.16
Fair Value$1.00$1.04$1.09
Upside / Downside-83.09%-82.33%-81.54%

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