Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Tianrun Industry Technology Co., Ltd. (002283.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$24.95 - $61.01$57.18
Multi-Stage$9.06 - $9.91$9.48
Blended Fair Value$33.33
Current Price$6.63
Upside402.65%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS32.15%16.69%0.230.060.100.060.050.060.080.050.050.05
YoY Growth--296.01%-41.48%74.42%21.45%-17.90%-25.95%55.04%5.80%-2.47%-1.97%
Dividend Yield--3.44%1.05%1.74%0.80%0.71%1.68%1.74%0.99%0.66%1.14%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)343.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)224.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)119.04
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)68.7742.9825.79
Cash Retained (M)119.04119.04119.04
(-) Cash Required (M)-68.77-42.98-25.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)50.2776.0693.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,120.831,120.831,120.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.070.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.070.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.270.28
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$24.95$57.18$61.01
Upside / Downside276.37%762.38%820.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)343.85366.20390.00415.35442.35471.10485.23
Payout Ratio65.38%70.30%75.23%80.15%85.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)224.81257.45293.39332.91376.33423.99448.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)239.38241.65243.92
Year 2 PV (M)253.66258.49263.36
Year 3 PV (M)267.63275.31283.14
Year 4 PV (M)281.30292.12303.25
Year 5 PV (M)294.68308.92323.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,818.239,244.169,686.38
Equity Value (M)10,154.8810,620.6411,103.74
Shares Outstanding (M)1,120.831,120.831,120.83
Fair Value$9.06$9.48$9.91
Upside / Downside36.65%42.92%49.42%

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