Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Shanghai SK Petroleum & Chemical Equipment Corporation Ltd. (002278.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.95 - $1.37$1.15
Multi-Stage$2.04 - $2.24$2.14
Blended Fair Value$1.64
Current Price$9.27
Upside-82.26%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.98%-6.46%0.060.010.050.050.050.050.000.000.000.09
YoY Growth--331.37%-71.71%2.50%-2.82%0.00%2,966.01%194.04%-6.42%-99.33%-25.75%
Dividend Yield--0.73%0.29%0.91%0.79%0.84%0.89%0.02%0.00%0.00%0.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)47.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)24.79
(=) Cash Retained (M)22.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.545.963.58
Cash Retained (M)22.8922.8922.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.54-5.96-3.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.3616.9319.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)361.89361.89361.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.120.12
WACC / Discount Rate7.40%7.40%7.40%
Growth Rate-3.37%-2.37%-1.37%
Fair Value$0.95$1.15$1.37
Upside / Downside-89.80%-87.57%-85.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)47.6846.5545.4544.3743.3242.3043.57
Payout Ratio51.99%59.59%67.19%74.80%82.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)24.7927.7430.5433.1935.7038.0740.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.40%7.40%7.40%
Growth Rate-3.37%-2.37%-1.37%
Year 1 PV (M)25.5625.8326.09
Year 2 PV (M)25.9426.4827.02
Year 3 PV (M)25.9826.7927.62
Year 4 PV (M)25.7526.8327.95
Year 5 PV (M)25.3026.6428.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)608.61640.76674.26
Equity Value (M)737.14773.33810.97
Shares Outstanding (M)361.89361.89361.89
Fair Value$2.04$2.14$2.24
Upside / Downside-78.03%-76.95%-75.83%

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