Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Lier Chemical Co.,LTD. (002258.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$57.35 - $115.46$108.21
Multi-Stage$17.91 - $19.60$18.74
Blended Fair Value$63.47
Current Price$12.99
Upside388.63%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-12.58%8.41%0.100.550.380.190.060.200.060.090.090.03
YoY Growth---81.98%45.12%98.17%199.31%-67.08%221.12%-29.65%-1.47%204.18%-35.14%
Dividend Yield--1.13%5.99%2.22%0.94%0.37%1.86%0.50%0.61%0.81%0.54%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)464.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)223.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)240.79
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)92.9458.0934.85
Cash Retained (M)240.79240.79240.79
(-) Cash Required (M)-92.94-58.09-34.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)147.85182.70205.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)800.44800.44800.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.230.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.230.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.460.510.54
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$57.35$108.21$115.46
Upside / Downside341.47%733.00%788.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)464.72494.93527.10561.36597.85636.71655.81
Payout Ratio48.19%56.55%64.91%73.27%81.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)223.93279.87342.15411.33488.07573.04606.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)260.68263.15265.62
Year 2 PV (M)296.83302.48308.19
Year 3 PV (M)332.38341.92351.64
Year 4 PV (M)367.34381.47396.00
Year 5 PV (M)401.72421.12441.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,677.4613,289.7913,925.55
Equity Value (M)14,336.4014,999.9315,688.26
Shares Outstanding (M)800.44800.44800.44
Fair Value$17.91$18.74$19.60
Upside / Downside37.88%44.26%50.88%

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