Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Azure Corporation (002245.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.47 - $37.94$22.05
Multi-Stage$9.82 - $10.74$10.27
Blended Fair Value$16.16
Current Price$20.02
Upside-19.28%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.17%6.09%0.050.030.060.030.010.020.030.020.030.03
YoY Growth--34.37%-44.39%133.33%111.11%-40.00%-37.27%58.93%-15.75%-17.49%17.98%
Dividend Yield--0.33%0.40%0.44%0.12%0.11%0.55%0.67%0.23%0.27%0.37%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)719.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)99.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)619.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)143.8289.8953.93
Cash Retained (M)619.27619.27619.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-143.82-89.89-53.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)475.44529.38565.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,154.371,154.371,154.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.410.460.49
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.410.460.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.500.550.58
WACC / Discount Rate9.13%9.13%9.13%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$14.47$22.05$37.94
Upside / Downside-27.70%10.14%89.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)719.11765.85815.64868.65925.11985.251,014.80
Payout Ratio13.88%29.11%44.33%59.55%74.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)99.85222.92361.58517.32691.77886.72938.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.13%9.13%9.13%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)202.35204.27206.19
Year 2 PV (M)297.92303.59309.32
Year 3 PV (M)386.90398.01409.33
Year 4 PV (M)469.63487.69506.27
Year 5 PV (M)546.42572.81600.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,432.319,887.8910,360.91
Equity Value (M)11,335.5311,854.2712,392.23
Shares Outstanding (M)1,154.371,154.371,154.37
Fair Value$9.82$10.27$10.74
Upside / Downside-50.95%-48.71%-46.38%

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