Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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CASTECH Inc. (002222.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.26 - $27.89$17.84
Multi-Stage$8.77 - $9.58$9.17
Blended Fair Value$13.51
Current Price$49.70
Upside-72.83%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.02%8.42%0.200.380.140.100.100.100.100.100.050.00
YoY Growth---47.48%166.19%50.21%-3.51%3.74%-2.56%2.63%110.89%1,776.94%-97.30%
Dividend Yield--0.59%1.46%0.68%0.75%0.71%1.02%0.78%0.64%0.31%0.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)268.76
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)56.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)212.74
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)53.7533.6020.16
Cash Retained (M)212.74212.74212.74
(-) Cash Required (M)-53.75-33.60-20.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)158.98179.14192.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)445.62445.62445.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.360.400.43
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.360.400.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.480.530.56
WACC / Discount Rate9.65%9.65%9.65%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$12.26$17.84$27.89
Upside / Downside-75.32%-64.10%-43.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)268.76286.23304.84324.65345.76368.23379.28
Payout Ratio20.85%34.68%48.51%62.34%76.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)56.0399.26147.87202.39263.36331.41350.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.65%9.65%9.65%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)89.6790.5291.37
Year 2 PV (M)120.69122.99125.31
Year 3 PV (M)149.23153.51157.88
Year 4 PV (M)175.44182.18189.12
Year 5 PV (M)199.45209.08219.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,174.783,328.123,487.34
Equity Value (M)3,909.264,086.414,270.10
Shares Outstanding (M)445.62445.62445.62
Fair Value$8.77$9.17$9.58
Upside / Downside-82.35%-81.55%-80.72%

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