Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ningbo Donly Co.,Ltd (002164.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.47 - $0.63$0.55
Multi-Stage$0.91 - $1.01$0.96
Blended Fair Value$0.76
Current Price$14.76
Upside-94.88%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-15.67%-16.52%0.010.020.030.030.030.030.440.140.000.13
YoY Growth---49.13%-12.47%-8.02%0.31%3.79%-93.84%209.82%0.00%-100.00%85.87%
Dividend Yield--0.14%0.45%0.43%0.56%0.35%0.80%11.09%1.78%0.00%1.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)61.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.23
(=) Cash Retained (M)56.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.337.714.62
Cash Retained (M)56.4256.4256.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.33-7.71-4.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)44.0948.7151.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)527.48527.48527.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.090.100.11
WACC / Discount Rate9.20%9.20%9.20%
Growth Rate-8.84%-7.84%-6.84%
Fair Value$0.47$0.55$0.63
Upside / Downside-96.80%-96.25%-95.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)61.6556.8252.3648.2644.4840.9942.22
Payout Ratio8.48%24.78%41.09%57.39%73.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.2314.0821.5127.7032.7836.8939.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.20%9.20%9.20%
Growth Rate-8.84%-7.84%-6.84%
Year 1 PV (M)12.7612.9013.04
Year 2 PV (M)17.6518.0418.44
Year 3 PV (M)20.5921.2721.97
Year 4 PV (M)22.0723.0524.07
Year 5 PV (M)22.5023.7625.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)384.35405.90428.40
Equity Value (M)479.91504.92530.99
Shares Outstanding (M)527.48527.48527.48
Fair Value$0.91$0.96$1.01
Upside / Downside-93.84%-93.51%-93.18%

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