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YUNDA Holding Co., Ltd. (002120.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.89 - $84.71$79.38
Multi-Stage$12.44 - $13.61$13.01
Blended Fair Value$46.20
Current Price$7.42
Upside522.63%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.09%67.16%0.270.180.180.150.210.300.110.040.000.01
YoY Growth--46.92%-0.47%25.19%-30.22%-29.55%172.08%164.40%4,457.63%-82.68%233.33%
Dividend Yield--3.85%2.38%1.53%0.83%1.48%1.24%0.46%0.18%0.01%0.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,236.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)736.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)499.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)247.20154.5092.70
Cash Retained (M)499.14499.14499.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-247.20-154.50-92.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)251.94344.64406.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,891.792,891.792,891.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.120.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.120.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.370.40
WACC / Discount Rate6.52%6.52%6.52%
Growth Rate5.13%6.13%7.13%
Fair Value$25.89$79.38$84.71
Upside / Downside248.90%969.85%1,041.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,236.021,311.761,392.151,477.461,568.001,664.091,714.02
Payout Ratio59.62%65.69%71.77%77.85%83.92%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)736.88861.74999.151,150.161,315.921,497.681,585.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.52%6.52%6.52%
Growth Rate5.13%6.13%7.13%
Year 1 PV (M)801.40809.02816.65
Year 2 PV (M)864.12880.63897.31
Year 3 PV (M)925.06951.71978.87
Year 4 PV (M)984.271,022.261,061.33
Year 5 PV (M)1,041.781,092.281,144.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)31,360.4032,880.5834,459.15
Equity Value (M)35,977.0237,636.4839,358.02
Shares Outstanding (M)2,891.792,891.792,891.79
Fair Value$12.44$13.01$13.61
Upside / Downside67.67%75.40%83.43%

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