Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Hunan Nanling Industrial Explosive Materials Co., Ltd. (002096.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.06 - $28.54$18.74
Multi-Stage$9.24 - $10.10$9.66
Blended Fair Value$14.20
Current Price$13.84
Upside2.59%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS105.10%21.92%0.220.030.200.010.010.010.010.010.010.04
YoY Growth--624.14%-85.11%3,266.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%-50.00%0.00%-66.67%20.00%
Dividend Yield--1.91%0.26%1.60%0.05%0.06%0.10%0.08%0.16%0.09%0.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)833.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)16.32
(=) Cash Retained (M)816.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)166.62104.1462.48
Cash Retained (M)816.78816.78816.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-166.62-104.14-62.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)650.16712.65754.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,240.651,240.651,240.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.520.570.61
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.520.570.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.540.590.62
WACC / Discount Rate9.84%9.84%9.84%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$13.06$18.74$28.54
Upside / Downside-5.64%35.37%106.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)833.10887.25944.921,006.341,071.751,141.421,175.66
Payout Ratio1.96%19.57%37.18%54.78%72.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)16.32173.61351.28551.31775.861,027.281,087.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.84%9.84%9.84%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)156.57158.05159.54
Year 2 PV (M)285.71291.16296.65
Year 3 PV (M)404.41416.02427.85
Year 4 PV (M)513.28533.02553.32
Year 5 PV (M)612.92642.52673.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,486.109,944.2910,420.00
Equity Value (M)11,459.0011,985.0612,530.62
Shares Outstanding (M)1,240.651,240.651,240.65
Fair Value$9.24$9.66$10.10
Upside / Downside-33.26%-30.20%-27.02%

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