Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Huafon Chemical Co., Ltd. (002064.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$42.90 - $66.36$62.19
Multi-Stage$10.95 - $11.98$11.46
Blended Fair Value$36.82
Current Price$9.12
Upside303.74%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.97%26.10%0.160.170.320.110.060.090.300.010.020.02
YoY Growth---4.77%-46.02%189.58%69.43%-27.03%-70.18%2,438.22%-46.13%7.84%25.64%
Dividend Yield--2.10%2.43%4.26%1.20%0.55%1.89%5.51%0.24%0.42%0.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,666.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)763.83
(=) Cash Retained (M)903.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)333.37208.36125.01
Cash Retained (M)903.02903.02903.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-333.37-208.36-125.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)569.65694.67778.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,995.534,995.534,995.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.140.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.140.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.290.31
WACC / Discount Rate6.16%6.16%6.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$42.90$62.19$66.36
Upside / Downside370.45%581.88%627.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,666.851,775.201,890.582,013.472,144.352,283.732,352.24
Payout Ratio45.82%54.66%63.49%72.33%81.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)763.83970.321,200.421,456.341,740.462,055.362,175.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.16%6.16%6.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)905.46914.04922.63
Year 2 PV (M)1,045.311,065.231,085.32
Year 3 PV (M)1,183.401,217.381,251.99
Year 4 PV (M)1,319.751,370.501,422.70
Year 5 PV (M)1,454.361,524.601,597.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)48,777.4251,133.3953,579.52
Equity Value (M)54,685.7057,225.1459,859.71
Shares Outstanding (M)4,995.534,995.534,995.53
Fair Value$10.95$11.46$11.98
Upside / Downside20.03%25.61%31.39%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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