Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Chuzhou Duoli Automotive Technology Co., Ltd. (001311.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$168.96 - $199.06$186.55
Multi-Stage$142.49 - $156.36$149.29
Blended Fair Value$167.92
Current Price$25.43
Upside560.33%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS27.09%0.00%0.550.400.050.780.370.170.020.000.000.00
YoY Growth--38.40%632.23%-93.06%112.10%122.22%585.69%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.51%1.73%0.13%1.93%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)274.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)148.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)126.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)54.9534.3520.61
Cash Retained (M)126.56126.56126.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-54.95-34.35-20.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)71.6192.21105.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)274.51274.51274.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.260.340.39
LTM Dividend per Share0.540.540.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.260.340.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.800.880.93
WACC / Discount Rate-1.97%-1.97%-1.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$168.96$186.55$199.06
Upside / Downside564.41%633.59%682.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)274.77292.63311.66331.91353.49376.46387.76
Payout Ratio53.94%61.15%68.36%75.58%82.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)148.21178.95213.06250.85292.65338.82358.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-1.97%-1.97%-1.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)180.84182.55184.26
Year 2 PV (M)217.57221.71225.90
Year 3 PV (M)258.85266.28273.86
Year 4 PV (M)305.17316.90328.97
Year 5 PV (M)357.03374.28392.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)37,795.9739,621.5341,516.96
Equity Value (M)39,115.4340,983.2642,922.13
Shares Outstanding (M)274.51274.51274.51
Fair Value$142.49$149.29$156.36
Upside / Downside460.32%487.08%514.85%

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