Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Fujian Mindong Electric Power Limited Company (000993.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Renewable UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.98 - $4.33$3.63
Multi-Stage$4.71 - $5.19$4.94
Blended Fair Value$4.29
Current Price$9.85
Upside-56.46%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.63%0.10%0.210.030.040.080.110.120.120.150.120.00
YoY Growth--723.39%-36.77%-51.87%-26.79%-5.51%1.00%-21.73%27.40%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--2.33%0.25%0.40%0.73%1.59%1.85%1.42%1.86%0.82%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)206.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)196.18
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)41.2725.8015.48
Cash Retained (M)196.18196.18196.18
(-) Cash Required (M)-41.27-25.80-15.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)154.91170.38180.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)509.87509.87509.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.300.330.35
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.300.330.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.320.350.37
WACC / Discount Rate8.87%8.87%8.87%
Growth Rate-1.81%-0.81%0.19%
Fair Value$2.98$3.63$4.33
Upside / Downside-69.75%-63.12%-56.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)206.37204.71203.06201.42199.80198.19204.14
Payout Ratio4.94%21.95%38.96%55.98%72.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10.1944.9479.12112.75145.83178.37188.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.87%8.87%8.87%
Growth Rate-1.81%-0.81%0.19%
Year 1 PV (M)40.8641.2841.69
Year 2 PV (M)65.4266.7668.11
Year 3 PV (M)84.7787.3990.06
Year 4 PV (M)99.70103.82108.07
Year 5 PV (M)110.89116.65122.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,001.342,105.342,213.62
Equity Value (M)2,402.972,521.232,644.20
Shares Outstanding (M)509.87509.87509.87
Fair Value$4.71$4.94$5.19
Upside / Downside-52.15%-49.80%-47.35%

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