Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co., Ltd. (000951.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$48.03 - $266.25$92.26
Multi-Stage$33.95 - $37.18$35.53
Blended Fair Value$63.90
Current Price$17.21
Upside271.27%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.59%10.72%0.750.090.340.550.430.430.570.370.250.28
YoY Growth--742.05%-73.90%-38.09%28.42%-0.97%-24.02%54.70%44.19%-8.29%2.92%
Dividend Yield--3.69%0.53%2.01%4.46%1.56%2.98%4.34%3.53%2.51%3.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,595.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)573.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,022.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)319.19199.50119.70
Cash Retained (M)1,022.451,022.451,022.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-319.19-199.50-119.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)703.25822.95902.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,181.341,181.341,181.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.600.700.76
LTM Dividend per Share0.490.490.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.600.700.76
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.081.181.25
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate4.53%5.53%6.53%
Fair Value$48.03$92.26$266.25
Upside / Downside179.08%436.07%1,447.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,595.971,684.241,777.391,875.701,979.442,088.912,151.58
Payout Ratio35.94%46.75%57.56%68.37%79.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)573.53787.361,023.091,282.491,567.461,880.021,990.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate4.53%5.53%6.53%
Year 1 PV (M)729.68736.66743.64
Year 2 PV (M)878.68895.57912.62
Year 3 PV (M)1,020.771,050.341,080.49
Year 4 PV (M)1,156.171,201.061,247.23
Year 5 PV (M)1,285.131,347.791,412.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)35,036.9736,745.2638,519.55
Equity Value (M)40,107.3941,976.6843,916.39
Shares Outstanding (M)1,181.341,181.341,181.34
Fair Value$33.95$35.53$37.18
Upside / Downside97.27%106.47%116.01%

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