Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Xinxiang Chemical Fiber Co., Ltd. (000949.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.71 - $21.55$20.20
Multi-Stage$3.42 - $3.74$3.58
Blended Fair Value$11.89
Current Price$4.35
Upside173.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS73.69%5.71%0.120.090.180.100.110.010.080.070.070.07
YoY Growth--27.88%-47.82%71.75%-0.37%1,284.49%-90.86%23.02%-4.28%-5.41%8.26%
Dividend Yield--2.82%2.81%5.27%2.15%2.63%0.22%2.39%1.72%1.14%1.72%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)179.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)154.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)25.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)35.9022.4413.46
Cash Retained (M)25.0925.0925.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-35.90-22.44-13.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)-10.812.6511.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,656.301,656.301,656.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.090.090.10
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$10.71$20.20$21.55
Upside / Downside146.12%364.29%395.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)179.49191.15203.58216.81230.90245.91253.29
Payout Ratio86.02%86.82%87.61%88.41%89.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)154.40165.95178.36191.68205.98221.32234.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)154.57156.04157.50
Year 2 PV (M)154.74157.68160.66
Year 3 PV (M)154.89159.33163.87
Year 4 PV (M)155.03160.99167.12
Year 5 PV (M)155.15162.65170.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,896.635,133.145,378.70
Equity Value (M)5,671.015,929.846,198.28
Shares Outstanding (M)1,656.301,656.301,656.30
Fair Value$3.42$3.58$3.74
Upside / Downside-21.29%-17.70%-13.97%

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