Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Jiangsu Huaxicun Co.,Ltd. (000936.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.57 - $3.74$3.14
Multi-Stage$3.99 - $4.39$4.18
Blended Fair Value$3.66
Current Price$7.63
Upside-52.02%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-25.51%1.77%0.070.060.090.050.160.320.430.290.070.05
YoY Growth--22.17%-35.00%89.74%-70.40%-48.59%-25.94%46.31%316.60%53.39%-24.97%
Dividend Yield--1.03%0.74%1.17%0.87%2.84%3.85%3.92%3.77%0.78%0.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)317.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)37.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)280.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)63.5639.7323.84
Cash Retained (M)280.28280.28280.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-63.56-39.73-23.84
(=) Excess Retained (M)216.71240.55256.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)921.87921.87921.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.240.260.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.240.260.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.280.300.32
WACC / Discount Rate9.02%9.02%9.02%
Growth Rate-1.54%-0.54%0.46%
Fair Value$2.57$3.14$3.74
Upside / Downside-66.30%-58.87%-50.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)317.82316.11314.41312.72311.04309.37318.65
Payout Ratio11.81%27.45%43.09%58.72%74.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)37.5486.77135.47183.64231.30278.43294.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.02%9.02%9.02%
Growth Rate-1.54%-0.54%0.46%
Year 1 PV (M)78.7979.5980.39
Year 2 PV (M)111.69113.97116.28
Year 3 PV (M)137.48141.72146.03
Year 4 PV (M)157.23163.72170.40
Year 5 PV (M)171.86180.77190.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,020.463,176.993,339.94
Equity Value (M)3,677.523,856.754,043.08
Shares Outstanding (M)921.87921.87921.87
Fair Value$3.99$4.18$4.39
Upside / Downside-47.72%-45.17%-42.52%

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