Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Hunan TV & Broadcast Intermediary Co., Ltd. (000917.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Advertising AgenciesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.52 - $0.70$0.61
Multi-Stage$1.00 - $1.10$1.05
Blended Fair Value$0.83
Current Price$8.38
Upside-90.09%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS39.74%-4.72%0.090.080.110.170.210.020.230.260.290.24
YoY Growth--11.06%-20.36%-37.21%-19.52%1,092.31%-92.33%-14.09%-9.56%21.42%59.86%
Dividend Yield--1.16%1.27%1.72%3.03%4.56%0.29%2.46%3.38%2.20%1.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)167.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)90.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)76.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)33.4120.8812.53
Cash Retained (M)76.0676.0676.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-33.41-20.88-12.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)42.6555.1863.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,462.571,462.571,462.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.090.100.11
WACC / Discount Rate9.62%9.62%9.62%
Growth Rate-6.72%-5.72%-4.72%
Fair Value$0.52$0.61$0.70
Upside / Downside-93.77%-92.67%-91.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)167.06157.50148.49140.00131.99124.44128.18
Payout Ratio54.47%61.58%68.68%75.79%82.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)90.9996.98101.99106.10109.41112.00118.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.62%9.62%9.62%
Growth Rate-6.72%-5.72%-4.72%
Year 1 PV (M)87.5388.4789.41
Year 2 PV (M)83.0884.8786.68
Year 3 PV (M)78.0180.5583.14
Year 4 PV (M)72.6175.7779.04
Year 5 PV (M)67.0870.7674.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,072.801,131.551,192.85
Equity Value (M)1,461.131,531.981,605.72
Shares Outstanding (M)1,462.571,462.571,462.57
Fair Value$1.00$1.05$1.10
Upside / Downside-88.08%-87.50%-86.90%

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