Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sichuan Jiuzhou Electronic Co., Ltd. (000801.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.09 - $11.31$6.33
Multi-Stage$2.89 - $3.15$3.02
Blended Fair Value$4.68
Current Price$15.99
Upside-70.75%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS41.45%11.64%0.110.100.050.030.040.020.020.020.050.03
YoY Growth--13.39%95.93%96.10%-39.32%114.18%0.00%0.00%-60.00%66.67%-20.34%
Dividend Yield--0.71%0.76%0.71%0.39%0.75%0.42%0.29%0.30%0.43%0.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)172.41
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)109.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)62.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)34.4821.5512.93
Cash Retained (M)62.8062.8062.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-34.48-21.55-12.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)28.3241.2549.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,020.431,020.431,020.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.150.16
WACC / Discount Rate8.99%8.99%8.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4.09$6.33$11.31
Upside / Downside-74.41%-60.39%-29.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)172.41183.62195.56208.27221.81236.22243.31
Payout Ratio63.58%68.86%74.15%79.43%84.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)109.62126.45145.00165.43187.90212.60225.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.99%8.99%8.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)114.93116.02117.11
Year 2 PV (M)119.79122.07124.38
Year 3 PV (M)124.23127.79131.43
Year 4 PV (M)128.25133.19138.26
Year 5 PV (M)131.90138.27144.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,332.652,445.322,562.30
Equity Value (M)2,951.753,082.663,218.35
Shares Outstanding (M)1,020.431,020.431,020.43
Fair Value$2.89$3.02$3.15
Upside / Downside-81.91%-81.11%-80.28%

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