Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PKU HealthCare Corp.,Ltd. (000788.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.26 - $3.51$2.83
Multi-Stage$7.11 - $7.85$7.47
Blended Fair Value$5.15
Current Price$6.14
Upside-16.10%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.30%-7.51%0.080.010.050.030.020.040.030.010.050.12
YoY Growth--1,099.95%-85.96%42.79%42.81%-45.66%34.43%124.25%-70.36%-61.38%-28.92%
Dividend Yield--1.35%0.12%0.64%0.26%0.36%0.68%0.37%0.19%0.38%1.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)143.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)48.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)95.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)28.7217.9510.77
Cash Retained (M)95.3295.3295.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-28.72-17.95-10.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)66.6077.3784.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)595.90595.90595.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.130.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.130.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.210.22
WACC / Discount Rate5.35%5.35%5.35%
Growth Rate-2.95%-1.95%-0.95%
Fair Value$2.26$2.83$3.51
Upside / Downside-63.27%-53.85%-42.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)143.61140.81138.07135.38132.74130.16134.06
Payout Ratio33.62%44.90%56.17%67.45%78.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)48.2863.2277.5691.31104.50117.14124.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.35%5.35%5.35%
Growth Rate-2.95%-1.95%-0.95%
Year 1 PV (M)59.4060.0160.62
Year 2 PV (M)68.4669.8871.31
Year 3 PV (M)75.7378.1080.51
Year 4 PV (M)81.4384.8488.35
Year 5 PV (M)85.7690.2794.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,864.424,067.664,279.35
Equity Value (M)4,235.214,450.754,675.12
Shares Outstanding (M)595.90595.90595.90
Fair Value$7.11$7.47$7.85
Upside / Downside15.75%21.64%27.78%

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