Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sichuan Haowu Electromechanical Co., Ltd. (000757.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.44 - $0.59$0.52
Multi-Stage$0.81 - $0.89$0.85
Blended Fair Value$0.68
Current Price$5.32
Upside-87.16%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-23.50%27.27%0.020.020.030.060.050.080.040.000.000.00
YoY Growth--1.81%-15.78%-56.65%27.20%-44.57%119.98%2,600.86%-5.53%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--0.57%0.57%0.56%1.31%1.23%2.05%0.64%0.02%0.02%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)46.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)41.21
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.335.833.50
Cash Retained (M)41.2141.2141.21
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.33-5.83-3.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)31.8835.3837.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)523.10523.10523.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.070.080.08
WACC / Discount Rate9.14%9.14%9.14%
Growth Rate-6.16%-5.16%-4.16%
Fair Value$0.44$0.52$0.59
Upside / Downside-91.77%-90.27%-88.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)46.6644.2641.9739.8137.7635.8136.89
Payout Ratio11.69%27.35%43.01%58.67%74.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.4512.1018.0523.3628.0732.2334.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.14%9.14%9.14%
Growth Rate-6.16%-5.16%-4.16%
Year 1 PV (M)10.9711.0911.21
Year 2 PV (M)14.8415.1615.48
Year 3 PV (M)17.4117.9718.54
Year 4 PV (M)18.9619.7820.63
Year 5 PV (M)19.7420.8121.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)340.42358.94378.27
Equity Value (M)422.34443.76466.06
Shares Outstanding (M)523.10523.10523.10
Fair Value$0.81$0.85$0.89
Upside / Downside-84.82%-84.05%-83.25%

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