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Shanxi Hi-speed Group Co., Ltd. (000755.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.23 - $13.88$9.00
Multi-Stage$8.64 - $9.46$9.04
Blended Fair Value$9.02
Current Price$4.83
Upside86.74%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.15%4.17%0.190.240.210.270.320.200.210.270.070.09
YoY Growth---20.58%14.77%-23.32%-15.68%60.11%-5.66%-21.70%293.72%-25.95%-25.94%
Dividend Yield--3.93%5.19%3.71%6.03%9.95%5.32%4.20%4.21%1.01%1.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)474.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)423.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)51.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)94.9259.3235.59
Cash Retained (M)51.1551.1551.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-94.92-59.32-35.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)-43.77-8.1815.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,467.411,467.411,467.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.290.290.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.280.30
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate2.17%3.17%4.17%
Fair Value$6.23$9.00$13.88
Upside / Downside28.94%86.30%187.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)474.59489.66505.21521.25537.80554.87571.52
Payout Ratio89.22%89.38%89.53%89.69%89.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)423.45437.65452.33467.50483.18499.39528.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate2.17%3.17%4.17%
Year 1 PV (M)407.27411.25415.24
Year 2 PV (M)391.70399.41407.19
Year 3 PV (M)376.73387.90399.29
Year 4 PV (M)362.33376.72391.54
Year 5 PV (M)348.48365.87383.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,787.4011,325.7211,885.33
Equity Value (M)12,673.9113,266.8713,882.53
Shares Outstanding (M)1,467.411,467.411,467.41
Fair Value$8.64$9.04$9.46
Upside / Downside78.82%87.18%95.87%

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