Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Tibet Development Co., Ltd. (000752.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.32 - $10.48$8.16
Multi-Stage$20.95 - $23.14$22.02
Blended Fair Value$15.09
Current Price$11.12
Upside35.71%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.020.040.060.03
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-57.41%-39.83%120.83%-62.49%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.19%0.27%0.39%0.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)147.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)127.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)29.4218.3911.03
Cash Retained (M)127.11127.11127.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-29.42-18.39-11.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)97.69108.72116.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)263.67263.67263.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.370.410.44
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.370.410.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.450.490.52
WACC / Discount Rate4.92%4.92%4.92%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$6.32$8.16$10.48
Upside / Downside-43.18%-26.63%-5.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)147.11145.64144.18142.74141.31139.90144.10
Payout Ratio13.60%28.88%44.16%59.44%74.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20.0042.0663.6784.84105.59125.91133.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.92%4.92%4.92%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)39.6840.0840.49
Year 2 PV (M)56.6757.8359.01
Year 3 PV (M)71.2573.4575.70
Year 4 PV (M)83.6587.1290.70
Year 5 PV (M)94.1199.02104.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,179.665,449.375,730.21
Equity Value (M)5,525.025,806.886,100.22
Shares Outstanding (M)263.67263.67263.67
Fair Value$20.95$22.02$23.14
Upside / Downside88.44%98.05%108.05%

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