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Guangdong Baolihua New Energy Stock Co., Ltd. (000690.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Independent Power ProducersSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.19 - $18.07$11.79
Multi-Stage$11.44 - $12.55$11.98
Blended Fair Value$11.89
Current Price$4.62
Upside157.34%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.04%1.10%0.410.140.170.440.380.330.240.190.310.35
YoY Growth--182.18%-13.01%-62.58%15.99%14.41%35.74%31.43%-40.39%-9.55%-4.88%
Dividend Yield--9.83%2.82%2.73%9.11%5.47%6.37%2.94%2.27%3.47%4.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)934.29
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)483.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)450.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)186.86116.7970.07
Cash Retained (M)450.82450.82450.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-186.86-116.79-70.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)263.96334.04380.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,165.722,165.722,165.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.150.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.220.220.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.150.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.380.40
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate2.04%3.04%4.04%
Fair Value$8.19$11.79$18.07
Upside / Downside77.36%155.28%291.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)934.29962.67991.911,022.051,053.101,085.091,117.64
Payout Ratio51.75%59.40%67.05%74.70%82.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)483.47571.80665.06763.46867.22976.581,033.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate2.04%3.04%4.04%
Year 1 PV (M)532.52537.73542.95
Year 2 PV (M)576.81588.17599.64
Year 3 PV (M)616.66634.96653.63
Year 4 PV (M)652.34678.29705.00
Year 5 PV (M)684.13718.31753.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)21,712.1022,797.0823,925.01
Equity Value (M)24,774.5425,954.5527,180.10
Shares Outstanding (M)2,165.722,165.722,165.72
Fair Value$11.44$11.98$12.55
Upside / Downside147.61%159.40%171.65%

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