Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Xinjiang Hejin Holding Co.,Ltd (000633.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.85 - $8.10$4.45
Multi-Stage$0.93 - $1.02$0.97
Blended Fair Value$2.71
Current Price$6.58
Upside-58.77%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-57.42%7.34%0.000.000.000.000.000.140.140.140.000.00
YoY Growth--44.60%83.01%-20.97%1.36%-99.34%0.13%-0.03%16,388.05%-19.96%9.89%
Dividend Yield--0.04%0.02%0.01%0.01%0.01%3.90%2.12%1.69%0.01%0.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)15.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)13.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.141.961.18
Cash Retained (M)13.4613.4613.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.14-1.96-1.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)10.3211.5012.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)385.85385.85385.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.030.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.030.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.030.040.04
WACC / Discount Rate7.35%7.35%7.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1.85$4.45$8.10
Upside / Downside-71.81%-32.36%23.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)15.7116.7317.8218.9720.2121.5222.17
Payout Ratio14.32%29.45%44.59%59.73%74.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.254.937.9411.3315.1319.3720.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.35%7.35%7.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)4.554.594.63
Year 2 PV (M)6.766.897.02
Year 3 PV (M)8.909.169.42
Year 4 PV (M)10.9711.3911.82
Year 5 PV (M)12.9613.5914.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)315.20330.43346.23
Equity Value (M)359.35376.05393.37
Shares Outstanding (M)385.85385.85385.85
Fair Value$0.93$0.97$1.02
Upside / Downside-85.85%-85.19%-84.51%

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