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Definitive Analysis

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Shaanxi International Trust Co.,Ltd. (000563.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.43 - $55.34$41.33
Multi-Stage$6.86 - $7.51$7.18
Blended Fair Value$24.26
Current Price$3.58
Upside577.54%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS31.76%32.88%0.120.050.050.040.040.030.030.030.010.01
YoY Growth--127.80%13.66%5.94%9.53%32.17%-2.93%2.29%242.24%27.22%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.55%1.80%1.48%1.41%1.22%0.88%0.59%0.81%0.15%0.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,422.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)534.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)887.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)284.54177.84106.70
Cash Retained (M)887.94887.94887.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-284.54-177.84-106.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)603.39710.10781.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,113.245,113.245,113.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.140.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.140.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.220.240.26
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$14.43$41.33$55.34
Upside / Downside303.10%1,054.56%1,445.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,422.721,515.201,613.691,718.581,830.291,949.262,007.73
Payout Ratio37.59%48.07%58.55%69.04%79.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)534.78728.37944.871,186.431,455.401,754.331,857.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)673.53679.91686.30
Year 2 PV (M)807.93823.32838.86
Year 3 PV (M)938.10965.03992.47
Year 4 PV (M)1,064.131,105.051,147.14
Year 5 PV (M)1,186.111,243.401,302.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)30,422.4031,891.8133,417.46
Equity Value (M)35,092.2036,708.5338,385.11
Shares Outstanding (M)5,113.245,113.245,113.24
Fair Value$6.86$7.18$7.51
Upside / Downside91.70%100.53%109.69%

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