Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

5i5j Holding Group Co., Ltd. (000560.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.46 - $0.74$0.59
Multi-Stage$1.25 - $1.37$1.31
Blended Fair Value$0.95
Current Price$3.05
Upside-68.95%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-21.22%-1.12%0.050.060.080.100.170.170.080.040.020.03
YoY Growth---19.18%-20.39%-18.11%-43.13%1.24%118.44%78.70%90.66%-16.23%-52.77%
Dividend Yield--1.70%2.93%2.57%2.53%4.59%5.06%0.99%0.71%0.26%0.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)107.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)87.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)20.16
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.4513.418.04
Cash Retained (M)20.1620.1620.16
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.45-13.41-8.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1.296.7612.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,347.252,347.252,347.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.040.040.04
WACC / Discount Rate5.74%5.74%5.74%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.46$0.59$0.74
Upside / Downside-84.82%-80.74%-75.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)107.25106.18105.12104.07103.03102.00105.06
Payout Ratio81.20%82.96%84.72%86.48%88.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)87.0988.0989.0690.0090.9191.8097.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.74%5.74%5.74%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)82.4783.3184.15
Year 2 PV (M)78.0579.6581.27
Year 3 PV (M)73.8476.1378.46
Year 4 PV (M)69.8372.7375.71
Year 5 PV (M)66.0169.4573.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,552.862,685.802,824.21
Equity Value (M)2,923.073,067.073,216.83
Shares Outstanding (M)2,347.252,347.252,347.25
Fair Value$1.25$1.31$1.37
Upside / Downside-59.17%-57.16%-55.07%

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