Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hunan Investment Group Co., Ltd. (000548.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.62 - $18.40$17.25
Multi-Stage$11.96 - $13.12$12.53
Blended Fair Value$14.89
Current Price$5.27
Upside182.50%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS37.82%10.10%0.100.020.020.040.000.020.050.050.000.05
YoY Growth--397.20%0.00%-44.07%1,569.22%-89.29%-60.00%0.02%1,512.22%-93.80%31.60%
Dividend Yield--1.86%0.43%0.42%0.76%0.05%0.55%0.93%0.80%0.03%0.59%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)46.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)27.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)18.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.205.753.45
Cash Retained (M)18.4318.4318.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.20-5.75-3.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)9.2312.6814.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)497.02497.02497.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.070.080.09
WACC / Discount Rate-0.01%-0.01%-0.01%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$15.62$17.25$18.40
Upside / Downside196.42%227.29%249.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)46.0048.9952.1755.5659.1763.0264.91
Payout Ratio59.94%65.95%71.96%77.97%83.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)27.5732.3137.5443.3249.7056.7260.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-0.01%-0.01%-0.01%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)32.0132.3132.61
Year 2 PV (M)36.8537.5538.26
Year 3 PV (M)42.1343.3444.57
Year 4 PV (M)47.8749.7251.61
Year 5 PV (M)54.1356.7459.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,729.996,006.756,294.11
Equity Value (M)5,942.976,226.406,520.61
Shares Outstanding (M)497.02497.02497.02
Fair Value$11.96$12.53$13.12
Upside / Downside126.89%137.71%148.94%

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