Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. (000422.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.80 - $8.82$7.21
Multi-Stage$14.83 - $16.32$15.56
Blended Fair Value$11.39
Current Price$14.72
Upside-22.65%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.93%-8.93%0.500.370.320.520.690.800.860.910.911.07
YoY Growth--35.19%14.08%-37.50%-24.57%-13.85%-6.72%-5.72%-0.69%-14.34%-16.27%
Dividend Yield--3.67%4.01%2.27%2.55%17.75%30.33%18.51%29.25%13.59%16.74%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)705.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)510.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)195.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)141.1588.2252.93
Cash Retained (M)195.34195.34195.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-141.15-88.22-52.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)54.20107.13142.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,065.611,065.611,065.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.100.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.480.480.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.100.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.530.580.61
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate-2.69%-1.69%-0.69%
Fair Value$5.80$7.21$8.82
Upside / Downside-60.63%-50.99%-40.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)705.73693.79682.06670.52659.18648.04667.48
Payout Ratio72.32%75.86%79.39%82.93%86.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)510.38526.28541.50556.05569.96583.23617.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate-2.69%-1.69%-0.69%
Year 1 PV (M)490.49495.54500.58
Year 2 PV (M)470.36480.08489.89
Year 3 PV (M)450.15464.18478.48
Year 4 PV (M)430.03447.99466.49
Year 5 PV (M)410.13431.64454.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,547.3114,257.8614,997.92
Equity Value (M)15,798.4716,577.2717,387.41
Shares Outstanding (M)1,065.611,065.611,065.61
Fair Value$14.83$15.56$16.32
Upside / Downside0.72%5.68%10.85%

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