Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Changhong Huayi Compressor Co., Ltd. (000404.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$110.38 - $130.05$121.88
Multi-Stage$76.03 - $83.46$79.67
Blended Fair Value$100.78
Current Price$7.11
Upside1,317.37%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.63%19.39%0.340.410.280.180.100.110.140.110.110.07
YoY Growth---16.48%43.50%58.19%85.61%-14.56%-18.77%30.42%-3.12%60.51%18.77%
Dividend Yield--4.42%5.76%4.63%3.60%2.14%3.21%2.80%1.84%1.23%0.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)454.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)40.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)413.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)90.8356.7734.06
Cash Retained (M)413.98413.98413.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-90.83-56.77-34.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)323.16357.22379.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)694.48694.48694.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.470.510.55
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.470.510.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.520.570.60
WACC / Discount Rate1.96%1.96%1.96%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$110.38$121.88$130.05
Upside / Downside1,452.51%1,614.16%1,729.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)454.14483.66515.10548.58584.24622.21640.88
Payout Ratio8.84%25.07%41.31%57.54%73.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)40.16121.27212.76315.64430.98559.99592.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.96%1.96%1.96%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)117.83118.94120.06
Year 2 PV (M)200.84204.67208.53
Year 3 PV (M)289.49297.80306.26
Year 4 PV (M)384.05398.81414.01
Year 5 PV (M)484.82508.24532.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)51,324.0753,803.0456,376.89
Equity Value (M)52,801.1055,331.5157,958.31
Shares Outstanding (M)694.48694.48694.48
Fair Value$76.03$79.67$83.46
Upside / Downside969.34%1,020.59%1,073.78%

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