Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Lotte Non - Life Insurance Co., Ltd. (000400.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$419.65 - $541.50$484.42
Multi-Stage$396.29 - $431.61$413.63
Blended Fair Value$449.02
Current Price$1,963.00
Upside-77.13%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.56%0.00%10.0810.0810.088.838.888.888.574.290.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%14.19%-0.61%0.00%3.57%100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.57%0.32%0.68%0.46%0.48%0.68%0.31%0.13%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)38,800.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,128.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)35,672.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7,760.044,850.032,910.02
Cash Retained (M)35,672.2235,672.2235,672.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-7,760.04-4,850.03-2,910.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)27,912.1830,822.1932,762.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)310.39310.39310.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share89.9399.30105.55
LTM Dividend per Share10.0810.0810.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share89.9399.30105.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend100.01109.38115.63
WACC / Discount Rate21.35%21.35%21.35%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$419.65$484.42$541.50
Upside / Downside-78.62%-75.32%-72.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)38,800.2238,412.2238,028.1037,647.8137,271.3436,898.6238,005.58
Payout Ratio8.06%24.45%40.84%57.22%73.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,128.009,391.5815,529.5721,543.8627,436.3133,208.7635,155.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate21.35%21.35%21.35%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)7,660.837,739.007,817.17
Year 2 PV (M)10,333.1710,545.1310,759.24
Year 3 PV (M)11,693.2412,054.8612,423.86
Year 4 PV (M)12,147.1512,650.5913,169.52
Year 5 PV (M)11,993.2912,617.8113,268.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)69,174.5972,776.6776,527.26
Equity Value (M)123,002.27128,384.06133,965.14
Shares Outstanding (M)310.39310.39310.39
Fair Value$396.29$413.63$431.61
Upside / Downside-79.81%-78.93%-78.01%

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