Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen Desay Battery Technology Co., Ltd. (000049.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$77.93 - $215.85$202.28
Multi-Stage$30.58 - $33.44$31.98
Blended Fair Value$117.13
Current Price$27.91
Upside319.68%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.96%21.49%1.061.920.930.921.050.720.430.270.120.19
YoY Growth---44.83%106.63%0.90%-12.57%45.82%67.59%61.71%116.79%-35.44%25.95%
Dividend Yield--4.63%7.91%2.32%2.72%2.42%3.33%1.88%1.23%0.38%0.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)417.47
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)225.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)192.04
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)83.4952.1831.31
Cash Retained (M)192.04192.04192.04
(-) Cash Required (M)-83.49-52.18-31.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)108.55139.86160.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)384.64384.64384.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.280.360.42
LTM Dividend per Share0.590.590.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.280.360.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.870.951.00
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$77.93$202.28$215.85
Upside / Downside179.21%624.76%673.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)417.47444.61473.51504.28537.06571.97589.13
Payout Ratio54.00%61.20%68.40%75.60%82.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)225.43272.09323.87381.24444.69514.77544.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)252.67255.07257.46
Year 2 PV (M)279.29284.61289.98
Year 3 PV (M)305.29314.05322.98
Year 4 PV (M)330.68343.40356.48
Year 5 PV (M)355.47372.64390.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,238.3610,732.8811,246.32
Equity Value (M)11,761.7612,302.6412,863.69
Shares Outstanding (M)384.64384.64384.64
Fair Value$30.58$31.98$33.44
Upside / Downside9.56%14.60%19.83%

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