Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

China International Marine Containers (Group) Co., Ltd. (000039.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$81.18 - $95.64$89.63
Multi-Stage$29.52 - $32.38$30.92
Blended Fair Value$60.28
Current Price$8.29
Upside627.09%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.97%1.86%0.410.170.440.180.080.290.510.440.540.41
YoY Growth--137.81%-61.03%146.61%133.74%-73.79%-43.41%17.46%-19.45%33.44%20.21%
Dividend Yield--4.64%1.81%5.78%1.93%0.72%5.67%6.14%4.72%6.09%4.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,709.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)848.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,861.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)541.99338.74203.25
Cash Retained (M)1,861.751,861.751,861.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-541.99-338.74-203.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,319.761,523.001,658.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,635.095,635.095,635.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.230.270.29
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.230.270.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.380.420.44
WACC / Discount Rate4.71%4.71%4.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$81.18$89.63$95.64
Upside / Downside879.21%981.16%1,053.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,709.942,886.083,073.683,273.473,486.243,712.853,824.24
Payout Ratio31.30%43.04%54.78%66.52%78.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)848.191,242.151,683.752,177.502,728.333,341.563,537.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.71%4.71%4.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,175.181,186.321,197.46
Year 2 PV (M)1,507.081,535.781,564.76
Year 3 PV (M)1,843.941,896.871,950.81
Year 4 PV (M)2,185.822,269.882,356.34
Year 5 PV (M)2,532.772,655.112,782.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)157,121.03164,710.04172,589.49
Equity Value (M)166,365.82174,254.00182,440.98
Shares Outstanding (M)5,635.095,635.095,635.09
Fair Value$29.52$30.92$32.38
Upside / Downside256.13%273.02%290.54%

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